Eric is recommending Hit Makers by Derek Thompson.
"An unbelievably easy read about an ever important topic. How things become 'hits' in the movies or music is a question we all ask. The answers are both obvious and random. Exploring the topic of what makes a hit lets us explore life itself. 'None of this is new. From ancient lullabies to modern memes, new hits serve old purposes: to fill the time, to familiarize the strange, to estrange to familiar, to infect with emotion, to create meaning.' I strongly recommend this book."
- Eric
Interested in streamlining your voter outreach? Check out TenMoreVotes, a zero-paper voter outreach app built by campaign professionals for campaign professionals. The app makes it easier than ever for progressive and non-partisan campaigns to call, text, and canvass voters.
Best,
- Eric, Dave, and Mark
HSG Campaigns
www.HSGCampaigns.com
News seems to be coming out of Washington every week about the Mueller investigation and Trump's latest attacks on the FBI. We find ourselves asking, "What if Trump really does leave office early?" Today we look at some different scenarios to gauge the fallout.
#1 - Trump Resigns Before the 2018 Midterms
The president's party typically does worse in midterm elections because the opposition is more motivated to come to the polls. With Trump gone, the GOP base would feel even less enthusiasm and that could lead to a stronger environment for Democrats. Trump has been dragging down Republican poll numbers overall, and Democrats currently enjoy a 13-point generic ballot advantage. Although Trump vacating would likely lessen Democratic voters' sense of urgency, but the Republican base would be dismayed. Democrats almost assuredly take the House and are at least close to a majority in the Senate.
#2 - Trump is removed by Congress before the 2018 midterm
The only way this happens is if we see irrefutable evidence that Trump colluded with the Russian government to win in 2016, or if he's guilty of another high crime we do not yet know about. Trump's base still commands tremendous power in GOP primaries, so it could cause a massive number of sitting GOP members to lose in primaries. If that happens, it's unclear what exactly happens to Democratic turnout. Trump is out, but Trumpian Republicans are on the ballot. Either way, the year would be remembered for high drama.
#3 - Trump resigns in victory
Many have speculated Trump could get tired of being president and decide to return to his life as a celebrity. Trump announces he has "Made America Great Again" and that he never intended to stay in office if he got the job done. Mike Pence takes over and has almost universal support of the GOP entering 2020. This might be a best-case scenario for Republicans, but the economy will have to stay strong for them to remain in the White House.
#4 - Democrats impeach Trump after the midterms
In this scenario, Trump doesn’t actually leave office. Democrats manage to take the House in 2018 and details of obstruction of justice come out of the Mueller investigation. Democrats seize the opportunity to impeach. The country is divided, with Republicans unsure if the crime is worthy of removal. The Senate fails to reach the 2/3rds majority to remove Trump and the country stays on a similar track. We enter 2020 with even greater divisions, and neither party has a clear edge.
#5 - Trump leaves office in disgrace after Dems win the midterms
Overwhelming evidence convinces even Republicans to vote for impeachment and removal. Mike Pence is made president and has to deal with a Democratic majority in Congress. In this scenario, Pence is put in the Gerald Ford dilemma: Does he pardon Trump? If no, he offends Trump loyalists who refuse to believe anything but deep state conspiracies, and GOP turnout declines in 2020, losing him the election. If yes, he loses the support of many independents he will need in 2020. He loses in 2020 either way.
All of these scenarios have strong down-ballot implications for gubernatorial races and state legislatures, all of which affect redistricting after the 2020 election. Trump leaving office would have a profound effect on American politics over the next decade.
We all know how rapidly things are changing for political campaigns. That's why we compiled our top five skills your campaign staff should have in 2018.
#1 - Tech Troubleshooting Skills
Technology is an integral part of all campaigns, from email blasts, websites, and online petitions to social media, new software, and apps. Having a basic understanding of tech is essential. You might not be an expert in web design but taking some time to learn the basics can go a long way. Even if you aren’t using this technology directly, the understanding will help you communicate with members of your team who do, and make the entire campaign run smoother.
#2 - Strong Writing Skills
At the end of the day all campaigns are about organizing and communicating. The ability to articulate ideas properly is just as critical as it has always been. A candidate can have the best ideas, but if no one understands them they have no value. Campaigns move fast, and being able to move quickly and efficiently communicate with voters is key. On top of that, convincing your colleagues of your own ideas is key as well.
#3 - The "Can-Do" Attitude
The most important word a campaign worker has is "Yes." There should be no work that is beneath you in a campaign. We can plan all we want but sometimes the you-know-what hits the fan and suddenly you are covering responsibilities you are not used to. Being open to anything is not only the best way to get ahead, but it also makes sure the campaign stays on track even through problems.
#4 - Patience
This might seem counterintuitive in the digital age, when campaigns are moving faster than ever. But patience is still a virtue, especially when dealing with colleagues. A campaign is a team, and not all teams come together perfectly at first. Staffers need to remember they're working with people from diverse backgrounds who may not have the same experiences or skill sets they have. Patience is also key to minimizing mistakes. As we always say, slow is smooth and smooth is fast.
#5 - Thinking Only as Much as Necessary
A common problem on campaigns is over-thinking, over-analyzing, and over-strategizing. A campaign should be 10% planning and 90% executing. This is especially important as campaigns move more and more online, when the flow of information is becoming faster and faster. Less time spent executing means less time spent winning.