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As you (or your client) prepare to launch your 2018 race, it's important to separate the facts from the fictions of political campaigns. That's why we've prepared a list of the top 5 myths and misconceptions we see candidates holding on to as they enter the election.
1. There is a silver bullet for winning this race, I just need to figure out what it is.
The number of candidates who win by hoping for a silver bullet to materialize is essentially zero. To win, you need to be a good candidate, you need to have a good team, and you need the political environment – including the voters in your district and the time of your election – to be right for you. It takes a lot of time and hard work. Being a candidate for public office is hard. There is never a way to get around that.
2. The money will come to me.
There are a lot of well-funded campaigns on TV shows and in movies, and it leads us to believe that it happens quite naturally. Few TV shows or movies capture the hours and hours candidates spend dialing for dollars every day, yet it's how they raise money in the real world. Knowing people with money who like you gives you a big advantage, but even then, you still need to ask them for it. This is one of the few campaign tasks that can't be delegated. Only the candidate will be a successful fundraiser.
3. Having the most money ensures victory.
This is the flip-side of the money part of the campaign. Do you need money to win your race? Yes. Will raising the most money win the race? Not necessarily. Elections are complex. Money is important, but not as important as what you do with it. How will you spend it to communicate with voters? What exactly will you communicate? Donald Trump didn't raise nearly as much as his primary opponents. Instead he figured out how to be the most visible among them without paying for visibility. If you can't raise as much as your opponent you can still win, you just need to figure out how to do more with less.
4. We can win by giving non-voters a reason to vote.
This pipe dream is often found in states and districts where our party does so poorly that the locals are desperate enough to believe a pipe dream. Here's the truth: some non-voters have a deep distrust of all politicians, including you; some non-voters don't believe that voting is their duty; some non-voters are so apolitical they don't trust themselves to make the right decision. But for most non-voters, it's all of these things and more. It is almost always a better use of your time, energy, and campaign finances to focus on persuading likely voters and getting your supporters to the polls. If you're in a pipe dream district, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
5. Voters will choose the candidate with the best ideas.
Like having the most money raised in a campaign, having the best ideas doesn't hurt, but like everything else, it's not a silver bullet. Voters make their decisions based on a number of factors, but in most general elections, most voters decide based on their ideology alone. And there is a vast and ever-increasing body of social psychology research that shows how difficult it is for good ideas to undo the preconceived notions held by people with strong ideologies. Great ideas work best in primaries and among persuadable voters with low-ideology scores. In other circumstances you will want to focus on your opponent's negatives or getting your base to the polls.
"I have known Eric Hogensen for many years and he has always impressed me with his political insights. So naturally, when I decided to run, I decided to hire his firm. HSG Campaigns proved to be a highly-creative and hard-working team that never gave up. I very highly recommend them for your consulting needs if you run for office."
- Mitchell Schwartz, former candidate for Mayor of Los Angeles