2017 is almost over, and the most competitive midterm election in over a decade (for our side, anyway) is upon us. As we watch fundraising and polling over the next 11 months, here are some of the key battlegrounds to pay attention to.
1) Rural, working-class seats
During a midterm, the president’s party typically loses these states and districts. Will that be the case in 2018, or has Trump permanently shifted voters there into the Republican column?
Races to watch: IA-Gov, MI-Gov, MN-Gov, WI-Gov, WV-Sen, IN-Sen, MO-Sen, MT-Sen, ND-Sen, WI-Sen, IA-01, KS-02, MN-01, MN-08, NY-19, NY-22, PA-15, PA-16, TX-23, WA-08
2) Southern suburbs
Suburbs are usually where Republicans do well, especially in the south. But unlike rural voters around them, educated southern suburbanites have not taken well to Trump, and Republicans in districts like those struggled in 2017. Will it be enough for Democrats to pick up some of these seats?
Races to watch: GA-06, KY-06, TX-07, TX-32, VA-10
3) California holdouts
While most of the Golden State has stopped voting for the GOP, a number of Republicans have held on to Congressional seats across California, especially in Orange County. But Trump and his policies are deeply unpopular in these districts. The question is, how many will fall?
Races to watch: CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50
4) The West
Western states have never quite fit the same political molds as the Northeast, Midwest, or South. More libertarian attitudes, higher numbers of Latinos, and conservationist traditions might give the Democrats a sweep in these places.
Races to watch: CO-Gov, NM-Gov, NV-Gov, AZ-Sen, NV-Sen, AZ-01, AZ-02, CO-06, NM-02, NV-03, UT-04
5) The Sunshine State
Florida is always a battleground, but between it’s mix of quasi-southern history, cultural diversity, suburban density, and peculiar personas, it may be the state whose politics are most shaken up by the Trump presidency. There is also a number of open seats to pay attention to.
Races to watch: FL-Gov, FL-Sen, FL-07, FL-26, FL-27
This week Dave is recommending "Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend" by Larry Tye.
"As his Kansas City Monarchs teammate, the great Buck O'Neil, once said, 'The stories about Satchel are legendary, and some of them are even true.' The annals of baseball history are filled with characters as famous for their eccentric personalities as their achievements on the field. This was true of Satchel Paige, who was likely the greatest pitcher of all time as well as a remarkable character who loved life and somehow managed to continue playing professionally into his 60s. In this biography of him, Tye tries to separate fact from legend and show us how Paige fit in with a cast that included Jim Crow, a religious cult, gangsters, a Caribbean dictator, and a nation obsessed with baseball."
"The team at HSG Campaigns has a strong understanding of elections and the voters who participate in them. They work fairly with you and are able to provide great advice, clarity, and support. I would recommend them to my fellow city and district administrators for their own ballot measures."
— Brian Saeki, City Manager, Covina, CA