2017 is almost over, and the most competitive midterm election in over a decade (for our side, anyway) is upon us. As we watch fundraising and polling over the next 11 months, here are some of the key battlegrounds to pay attention to.
1) Rural, working-class seats
During a midterm, the president’s party typically loses these states and districts. Will that be the case in 2018, or has Trump permanently shifted voters there into the Republican column?
Races to watch: IA-Gov, MI-Gov, MN-Gov, WI-Gov, WV-Sen, IN-Sen, MO-Sen, MT-Sen, ND-Sen, WI-Sen, IA-01, KS-02, MN-01, MN-08, NY-19, NY-22, PA-15, PA-16, TX-23, WA-08
2) Southern suburbs
Suburbs are usually where Republicans do well, especially in the south. But unlike rural voters around them, educated southern suburbanites have not taken well to Trump, and Republicans in districts like those struggled in 2017. Will it be enough for Democrats to pick up some of these seats?
Races to watch: GA-06, KY-06, TX-07, TX-32, VA-10
3) California holdouts
While most of the Golden State has stopped voting for the GOP, a number of Republicans have held on to Congressional seats across California, especially in Orange County. But Trump and his policies are deeply unpopular in these districts. The question is, how many will fall?
Races to watch: CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50
4) The West
Western states have never quite fit the same political molds as the Northeast, Midwest, or South. More libertarian attitudes, higher numbers of Latinos, and conservationist traditions might give the Democrats a sweep in these places.
Races to watch: CO-Gov, NM-Gov, NV-Gov, AZ-Sen, NV-Sen, AZ-01, AZ-02, CO-06, NM-02, NV-03, UT-04
5) The Sunshine State
Florida is always a battleground, but between it’s mix of quasi-southern history, cultural diversity, suburban density, and peculiar personas, it may be the state whose politics are most shaken up by the Trump presidency. There is also a number of open seats to pay attention to.
Races to watch: FL-Gov, FL-Sen, FL-07, FL-26, FL-27
"Over the years I have worked with HSG and seen their work on heated campaigns. Time and again, I am impressed with their ability to deliver strategic messaging with high-impact visuals. Eric Hogensen is keenly aware of how to use his political mind to communicate with voters in a way that works."
- Chris Larson, Wisconsin State Senator, District 7
1) Kamala Harris
The media is ready to jump-start the 2020 campaign tonight by featuring a CNN town hall with Kamala Harris. The Senator from California entered the race with a bold launch, raising $1.5 million in the first 24 hours. As an African American/Asian woman, she has a unique appeal to multiple groups. Since California is an early primary state, Kamala Harris has a strong path toward becoming a front-runner.
2) The Women’s Vote
The women’s protest and movement against President Trump has undoubtedly inspired many women to seek higher office. For the first time in U.S. history, there will be more than one major female candidate running for office in a presidential primary. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Kirsten Gillibrand are all high-profile Senators who will make the first debate more diverse than before.
3) The Biden Factor
A big question for the 2020 Democratic primary is: Will Joe Biden run? In 2016 he took a pass due to the seemingly inevitability of Hillary Clinton, but many believe that he would have easily defeated Donald Trump. However, his 1988 and 2008 campaigns were lackluster, and Joe Biden would be 77 on Election Day 2020.
4) Elizabeth vs. Bernie
Ever since his surprisingly strong performance in 2016, Bernie Sanders has been considered the next frontrunner for the party’s left. But Elizabeth Warren is actively appealing to his base with strong arguments against inequality and detailed plans to tax the wealthy. Sanders’ entry in the race could decide who will be the Democratic Party’s “true leftist.”